Sustainability update January 2026

Uncertainty dominates the World Economic Forum’s 2026 risk landscape

Drawing on data from more than 1,300 experts and leaders, the WEF’s Global Risks Report 2026 assessed how material risks were evolving across short-, medium- and long-term time horizons. Deep uncertainty is the defining theme with 50% of respondents predicting “turbulent” or “stormy” conditions over the next two years. The pessimistic trend extended over the next decade with 57% of respondents anticipating protracted global instability – only one % of respondents predicted a calmer outlook across each time horizon. Declining trust, reduced transparency and heightened protectionism were among the main factors undermining the multilateral system.

For the first time in the report’s history, geoeconomic confrontation is ranked as the world’s most significant risk. This includes the use of tariffs, trade restrictions and investment controls as instruments of geopolitical competition and coercion, reflecting a clear shift among trading powers towards economic rivalry over cooperation. Protracted trade disputes and regional conflicts exacerbate global instability and increase the potential for spillovers into international markets and security.  The WEF’s report frames 2026 as the start of an “age of competition” marked by an increasingly contested multipolar landscape. Misinformation and disinformation ranked among the most severe near-term risks, driven by concerns about political polarisation and information integrity. The potential adverse outcomes of AI technologies also rose significantly between two- and ten-year risk scenarios, while cyber insecurity remains a significant threat across risk scenarios. 

Collectively, economic risks rose sharply from relatively low-ranking positions in 2025. Economic downturn, inflation, and asset-bubble bursts were key drivers in increased economic risks, compounded by rising debt levels, volatile financial conditions and the effects of ongoing geopolitical tensions. Inequality which acts as a factor in amplifying associated risks like economic instability and political fragmentation was identified as the most interconnected global risk for the second consecutive year. While environmental risks like extreme weather events, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, and critical Earth system change declined as near-term threats, they remain the top three global risks across the ten-year timeline. 

The trend of environmental risks featuring prominently in the ten-year view but failing to break through to the shorter-term priorities also continued. This is despite a growing body of evidence showing the more immediate existential risks that climate change and nature loss present. Last November, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) temperature trend application observed a significant acceleration in global temperature rise since the Paris Agreement. In 2015, C3S climate data forecast that the Agreement’s 1.5°C global temperature threshold would be reached by March 2045, while data compiled in 2025 revised that projection to May 2029. C3S projections aren’t necessarily indicative of future conditions, but they nevertheless reflect marked increases in key global temperature datasets.

High Seas Treaty enters into force, aiming to safeguard the planet’s “beating blue heart”

Commonly known as the High Seas Treaty, the Agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction officially entered into force on 17 January. The Treaty represents a historic achievement for multilateralism and a vital commitment to safeguard the health of the world's oceans for future generations.

Almost two-thirds of global ocean coverage lies beyond national borders and unregulated activity on the high seas presents a growing threat to marine health. Destructive fishing methods like bottom trawling significantly impact marine ecosystems through the bycatch of non-target species and damage to the seafloor caused by net dragging. Ecosystem damage is compounded by plastic and chemical pollution, emerging activities such as seabed mining, and increasing ocean acidification generated by rising temperatures. The High Seas Treaty heralds a new era of global ocean governance, creating the first legal framework to establish a connected network of marine protected areas (MPAs) across the high seas. It controls harmful activities, requiring environmental impact assessments for seabed mining and large-scale fishing for example. Most importantly, it aims to drive the transition from ocean exploitation to ocean stewardship and protection.

More than 80 countries have so far ratified the Treaty, however the UK is a notable exception, despite its support in principle. The government introduced legislation in September 2025 but stopped short of entering it into law – campaigners criticised parliament for not prioritising the legislation’s progress and for holding back on a proposal to ban bottom trawling in all UK waters. In response, a coalition of environmental NGOs and campaign groups issued an open letter to Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary, highlighting the country’s commitment to the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and its pledge to designate 30% of the world’s land and sea as protected by 2030. 

The passing of the High Seas Treaty also comes as countries including the US, Japan, Norway and Russia are looking to increase exploratory seabed mining for industry-critical metals and minerals. The push for greater exploratory freedom has led to growing international support for a moratorium on seabed mining to gather more scientific data on deep-sea ecosystems, better understand the operational impact of exploration processes, and prevent any activities without the necessary governance or licensing structures. We explore this and other vital aspects of the so-called ‘blue economy’ in our recent insights paper, under climate.

S&P Global report predicts a changing energy landscape and surging AI power demand for 2026

S&P Global’s annual sustainability trends report indicated a global energy landscape at an inflection point where strategic concerns regarding energy security, availability and affordability are increasingly weighed against the scientific realities of complex sustainable development challenges. Central to this narrative of “intertwined imperatives” are the pressures and complications created by global energy demand growth, the pace of the energy transition, and the rise in power consumption from the rapid expansion of AI datacentres.

 The report predicted that demand for global fossil fuels would grow by less than one% in 2026 relative to 2025, reflecting a long-term decline in consumption despite increasing energy demands. Meanwhile, renewables were forecast to grow at rates significantly greater than the overall energy demand trend, with combined solar and wind output expected to surge by more than 17% through 2026. The divergence highlights the rapid scaling and growth of low-carbon energy sources even as fossil fuels remain a primary source of energy generation, but aggregate figures mask deeper structural tensions across the global energy system. Rising power demand, wide-scale electrification, and grid constraints are adding to the challenges facing the scaling of renewables and flexible power generation, especially in the context of energy security and decarbonisation ambitions. The growth of clean energy also highlights some significant dependencies and geopolitical risks – for example, most of the global supply chain for the infrastructure and critical minerals driving solar and wind technology is concentrated in China. 

Increased AI adoption and the development of supporting cloud facilities and datacentres were projected to generate a significant spike in electricity demand in 2026 – the report estimated that datacentre electricity consumption could exceed 2,200 TWh by 2030, roughly equivalent to India’s annual power usage. Estimates for the energy demand associated with AI build-out vary considerably, and this projection falls within the middle of these ranges. This demand surge is a major driver of grid stress, infrastructural challenges, and, potentially, increased emissions. AI networks require a continuous, high-intensity power supply, and while many leading providers are maintaining service with renewable energy, a substantial portion of the industry still lacks robust climate targets, complicating the alignment between AI growth and global sustainability goals.

To finance the domestic clean energy drive and help meet its own 2030 energy targets, the UK government held a “contracts for difference” auction scheme last year for clean energy providers to submit closed bids indicating the lowest price they’d accept for each megawatt of renewable-generated electricity. Contracts were subsequently awarded to eight new offshore wind farms with additional government funding increasing the development budget to £22 billion. Projects providing 8.4GW of capacity are expected to support 7,000 skilled jobs, power 12 million homes, and permanently lower energy bills – government figures indicate that wind-generated electricity will cost 40% less than power produced by gas-fired plants. The UK currently has around 27.6GW of offshore wind capacity in operation, under construction, or under contract – at full capacity, this would be enough to power more than 27 million homes.