Sustainability update April 2026

Climate model projections show Gulf Stream current system at heightened risk of collapse

The Gulf Stream is an integral part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) which serves as a critical climate regulator. Transporting heat from the tropics to higher latitudes, the Gulf Stream moderates climate patterns in Europe and North America. Warm water reaching the North Atlantic cools and sinks due to its salinity, forming deep southward-flowing currents. This “conveyor belt” circulation system redistributes heat, stabilises marine environments, and helps prevent extreme seasonal temperature variations in northern regions.

In 2018, two studies published in science and technology journal Nature provided comprehensive ocean-based evidence that the Gulf Stream system was at its weakest level in at least 1,600 years – data from the period after 1850 indicated an accelerated subsequent decline linked to the increased burning of fossil fuels. Having expressed concern that the current was approaching collapse back in 2021, climate scientists warned that newer modelling projections indicated that the most pessimistic forecasts were likely to be the most realistic. Using real-world ocean observations and a variety of climate models to enhance reliability, updated projections estimated a 42% to 58% reduction in Gulf Stream system by 2100, a rate of decline almost certain to precipitate a systemic collapse. Such a scenario could result in severe climate disruptions in the Northern Hemisphere, higher coastal flooding risks, and destabilised marine and terrestrial ecosystems – reduced rainfall in regions as widespread as India, West Africa and South America could significantly impact annual crop yields and threaten long-term food security.

While climate modelling and scenario analysis within financial markets has improved materially in the past decade, the unpredictable nature of climate tipping points such as AMOC collapse means that they are often excluded from models of physical climate risk. Our recent insights series explores this challenge further. 

Marine protection efforts increase

Data from the World Database on Protected and Conserved Areas (WDPA) indicated that global ocean conservation efforts were progressing towards the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework’s target of 30% ocean and inland waterway protection by 2030. The recent addition of 284 marine or coastal protected areas across Indonesia and Thailand pushed global marine protected area (MPA) coverage beyond 10%. MPA additions in Australia and French Polynesia saw those countries join 31 others already protecting more than 30% of their territorial waters. 

While the passing of the 10% threshold marked a significant milestone for ocean conservation, experts warned that an area the size of the Indian Ocean would still require MPA status if the 30% protection target was to be achieved by 2030. Concerns were also raised about the quality and effectiveness of many existing MPAs and the comparatively low volume of ocean coverage classified as fully or highly protected.

Elsewhere, ocean conservation benefitted from resolutions made at the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (COP15) in Campo Grande, Brazil. Participating governments agreed on new measures to limit ocean bycatch, enhanced protections for several threatened species including thresher sharks, and greater ecological connectivity across terrestrial and marine environments. Parties also reaffirmed their cautionary stance on deep-seabed mining. Around two-thirds of the world’s sovereign nations (currently 133 in total) are parties to the Convention.

UK government commits to addressing pay gaps for minority ethnic and disabled workers

The government confirmed that it would introduce legislation through the upcoming Equality (Race and Disability) Bill requiring employers with more than 250 employees to report on their ethnicity and disability pay gaps. The announcement followed a three-month public consultation in 2025 that gained overwhelming support for mandatory reporting and a detailed framework to increase workplace transparency. A ministerial foreword to the government’s response highlighted its overarching aim to support diversity in UK workplaces and “ensure that background is no barrier to success”, recognising the value of workforce equality to the overall economy. On average, minority ethnic and disabled people are paid less than other employees, are less likely to be in secure work, and have fewer opportunities for promotion.

To minimise the burden on businesses affected by the legislation, the new reporting requirements will mirror existing gender pay gap reporting rules and enforcement mechanisms. This includes using the same geographic scope, sharing the same ‘snapshot’ dates for collecting pay information and statutory reporting data, and employing the same calculation framework. Employers will also be required to upload their ethnicity and disability pay gap data to an online reporting service.

Following a shift in the US administration’s stance on diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) and legal challenges against related corporate initiatives in the US through 2025, a ‘corporate conscience’ report by law firm Freeths found that over half of largescale businesses in the UK had scaled back their commitments to DEI and sustainability initiatives or abandoned them altogether. Around the same time, corporate inclusion specialists Onvero published their inaugural State of Inclusion in the UK study revealing that companies with mature DEI strategies reported 68% higher productivity and significantly lower employee turnover than companies lacking a similar culture. Positive supporting data on talent attraction and retention, employee engagement, and workplace satisfaction demonstrated that beyond the political noise, workplace inclusion was a critical business advantage. 

Greenbank has responded to shifting political perspectives on DEI by increasing its focus on DEI-related engagement through direct dialogue with companies and via the Good Work Coalition. Greenbank engages on DEI through a combination of company-level engagement and policy advocacy, including support for the introduction of ethnicity pay gap reporting. 

Global freedom report warns of a “growing shadow of autocracy”

Freedom House is a nonprofit organisation dedicated to promoting global democracy, political freedom, and human rights. In its annual Freedom in the World report, Freedom House rated people’s access to political rights and civil liberties in 208 countries and territories, factoring in a range of individual freedoms from voting rights to freedom of expression and equality before the law. Using these criteria to rate countries, “free”, “partly free” or “not free”, their 2026 report concluded that global freedoms had declined for the 20^th consecutive year, driven largely by the increased prevalence of autocratic regimes. It further asserted that the withdrawal of the US from international organisations and foreign aid commitments had emboldened autocracies to become more repressive internally and more aggressive abroad – the UK’s decision to reduce spending on international aid to its lowest level in 25 years was also noted.

The report identified three principal trends characterising 20 years of declining global freedoms: the number of countries falling back from a “partly free” to a “not free” rating; conflicts, coups and the erosion of democratic institutions by authoritarian leaders; and increased political interference in independent media outputs and domestic free speech. Through 2025, a total of 54 countries experienced a decline in political rights and civil liberties while only 35 registered improvements. Of the 88 countries rated “free”, the US recorded the sharpest decline in its freedom score, driven by an overly dominant executive, growing legislative dysfunction, limits on free expression, and attempts by the government to dismantle anticorruption safeguards. Elsewhere, Syria, Sri Lanka, Bolivia, and Gabon recorded the largest freedom score gains while the cumulative effects of competitive elections, increased judicial independence, and improved legal mechanisms saw ratings for Bolivia, Fiji, and Malawi move from “partly free” to “free”. Finland was the only country to register a perfect score for freedom, political rights and civil liberties.

Despite the ongoing challenges to global freedoms, the report highlighted the durability and resilience of democracies as well as their adaptability and unique capacity for self-correction. Democratic systems consistently perform better economically than their authoritarian counterparts and are better able to accommodate societal differences and policy disagreements because they safeguard individual rights and enable the peaceful transfer of administrative power. Societies are also more accepting of democratic political systems and more likely to resist authoritarian models – since the first Freedom in the World report was published in 1973, the number of countries rated “free” has more than doubled.